“SCIENCE” (facts) – WHAT WE KNOW … observation –
“SCIENTISM” (opinions) – WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW (metaphysical speculation
POVERTY: “PROGRESS” … “PERSISTENCE” … PERSPECTIVE
Since YESTERDAY, 250,000 people have been LIFTED OUT of one-meal-a-day, soul-destroying, unrelenting, extreme poverty, writes Dr Angus Hervey.
It’s time to tell that story.
Poverty has been falling continuously despite the world’s population increasing seven-fold during that time.
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, (1989) that process has accelerated, with an average of 47 MILLION people lifted over the extreme poverty line EVERY YEAR for the last 25 years.
A lot of this is thanks to China. Between 1978 and 2010, the country’s economy grew at an average pace of 10 per cent per year, lifting an astonishing 800 MILLION people OUT of extreme poverty.
Today, 0.7 BILLION (700 million) of the world’s 7.5 BILLION people live below the extreme poverty line.
That’s less than 10 per cent of the world’s population.
this the lowest proportion of people in extreme poverty ever, it’s also the lowest total number in more than 200 years. (the GREAT ENRICHMENT, since the INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.
It’s the great economic success story of all time.
For most of recorded history, only a TINY ELITE enjoyed HIGHER standards of living.
By far the MAJORITY of people were DIRT POOR. That’s how things stayed. Inequality wasn’t a social issue, it was just the WAY the WORLD WORKED. In the LAST 200 years this has CHANGED DRAMATICALLY.
The global extreme poverty rate FELL to 9.2 % in 2017, from 10.1 % in 2015.
That is equivalent to 689 MILLION people living on less than $1.90 a day.
At higher poverty lines, 24.1 % of the world lived on less than $3.20 a day …
… 43.6 % on less than $5.50 a day in 2017.
In 1990, 36% of world population was living on less than US$1.90 a day.
By 2015, shrunk to just 10% less than US$1.90 a day.
That’s over a BILLION people NO LONGER living in extreme poverty!
In 2015, 736 MILLION – 10% of the world’s population – worldwide were still living on less than US$1.90 a day.
Global poverty lines are used to measure the financial dimension of poverty.
The thresholds of $1.90, $3.20, and $5.50 per day represent different standards for poverty around the world.
People living on $1.90 per day are considered to live in extreme poverty.
Money isn’t a complete measure of poverty. Other dimensions of poverty include access (or lack thereof) to work, health, nutrition, education, sanitation, housing, etc.
HALF of the 736 million people living in extreme poverty globally live in FIVE COUNTRIES: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh.
It’s estimated that, because of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global recession, poverty rates will increase for the first time since 1990.
Internationally, 2.2 MILLION people lack access to a safely-managed drinking WATER service (located nearby, available when needed, and free from contamination).
Approximately 297,000 children under five DIE EVERY YEAR from diarrhoeal diseases due to poor sanitation, poor hygiene, or unsafe drinking water.
About 13% of people globally do NOT have ELECTRICITY, and 40% NO clean fuels for COOKING.
MALNUTRITION is the LEADING cause of poor health and death around the world. Globally, 1 in 9 people is hungry or undernourished.
IN-EQUALITY? COMPARED (relative) to WHAT?
So the next time you read something lamenting that inequality is the greatest economic issue of our time, take a moment and ask yourself WHO’s writing it.
Your OPINION really DEPENDS on who you CARE about, and where you STAND.
For the AVERAGE HUMAN BEING on the planet today, the world has NEVER been a BETTER place. That story DOES NOT GET TOLD.
ENOUGH FOOD?
FARMERS are producing MORE FOOD ON LESS LAND
With continuing increases in crop yields, the world’s farmers are harvesting hundreds of millions of tons MORE grain each year on tens of millions acres LESS land than they did in the 1970s and ’80s
According to USDA figures, the world was producing 1.9 MILLION metric tons of grain from 579.1 hectares of land (a hectare is 2.47 acres) in 1976.
In 2004, we got 3.1 MILLION metric tons of grain from only 517.9 hectares of land.
POVERTY
Poverty is NOT JUST a state of having LESS MONEY or possessions than others around you.
Poverty in terms of STATISTICS can be TRICKY sometimes
IF OVERPOPULATION DOES NOT CAUSE poverty,
WHAT does CAUSE POVERTY?
Poverty isn’t a disease or a “condition,” like the measles or a broken leg.
Poverty is “SUBJECTIVE” and RELATIVE … COMPARED to WHAT?
the state of SCARCITY … what we WANT … NEED …
ECONOMICS is the INTERSECTION of “NATURE” (creatures) and HUMAN NATURE (citizens-politics)
WEALTH and POVERTY are MULTI-DIMENSIONAL … (physical … political … spiritual)
“VISIONS in COLLISION” …
OVER-POPULATION by itself DOES NOT CAUSE POVERTY
SUPPLY and DEMAND is NOT so SIMPLE …
POVERTY is a “PEOPLE” PROBLEM … PEOPLE CAUSE POVERTY …
BUT PEOPLE are ALSO the BEST “CURE” for POVERTY …
The LACK of a thing – SCARCITY (the LOGIC of LESS) …
“FIXED” by INCREASED “SUPPLY” (the MORALITY of MORE)
The MOST EFFECTIVE way that poverty has been DEFEATED is by INFRASTRUCTURES of WEALTH …
“WEALTH” is the best “CURE” for POVERTY ...
WEALTH CREATION is the BEST WAY to REDRESS “POVERTY” in a “TRAGIC” WORLD …
When poverty DOES exist, it is OFTEN a PROBLEM of “INFRASTRUCTURES”:
1)INFRASTRUCTURE DO NOT EXIST, like in UNDERDEVELOPED nations, or
2)INFRASTRUCTURES are BROKEN or have HOLES in them.
“FIXING” poverty is IN PART about FIXING BAD INFRASTUCTURE, NOT about ELIMINATING PEOPLE
The fact is the POOREST NATIONS in the world are OFTEN among the LEAST POPULATED
The CONGO is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a meager per capita GDP of only $300.
The Congo’s population density is only 75 people per square mile, a fairly LIGHT population density.
Compare it with the NETHERLANDS,
one of the wealthiest countries in the world with per capita GDP of $39,200 with a population density of 1,039 people per square mile.
when people move to more POPULATED areas, they’re actually more likely to get OUT of poverty
In 2008, the World Bank paper called “Urban Poverty: A Global View” discussed the effects of URBANIZATION
People who moved to urban areas were MORE LIKELY to ESCAPE poverty, than to BE “EXPLOITED”
more likely to be better off over time because “urbanization contributes to SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH which is critical to poverty REDUCTION” (“be fruitful and multiply)
MOST WEALTH is EARNED … NOT NOT “RE-DISTRIBUTED” …
WEALTH by “MAKERS” … NOT “TAKERS” …
The urbanization process has played an important role in poverty REDUCTION by PROVIDING NEW OPPORTUNITIES … GROWTH and JOB CREATION”
Poverty in crowded areas still exists. … BUT continues to exist in spite of, rather than because of human population
What brings human beings OUT of poverty?
Like most things, POVERTY IS NOT any ONE SIMPLE thing
“INTERESTS” both CAUSE and “CURE” POVERTY …
“GREED” and ENVY are COMPLEX HUMAN INTERACTIONS the RESIST “SIMPLE” SOLUTIONS …
The MOST EFFECTIVE method to LESSen poverty INVOLVES “COMMUNITY” – ALTRUISM
“BE FRUITFUL and MULTIPLY“ … NOT LOOT-ful and DIVIDE …
to “ESCAPE” poverty HUMANS USE and “EXPLOIT” OTHER human beings
SOME Solitary human beings are INCAPABLE of solving SOME of the most basic problems that need to be solved in order for THEIR lives to improve – “victims” of “oppression” – from society, their peers, themselves
COMMUNITY … collections of minds and a MULTIPLICATION of labor allows human beings to solve problems and accomplish more difficult and complicated tasks.
INCREASED WEALTH PRODUCTION – COMMUNAL “ECONOMIES of SCALE” … EFFICIENCY … DIVISION of LABOR … VALUE CREATION … REFLECTION on the “FRUITS of LABOR” …
The MULTIPLICATION of humans has directly led to the IMPROVEMENT of our species – “BE FRUITFUL and MULTIPLY” …
The source of improvement is PRODUCTIVITY – because improvements – their invention and their adoption — come from people – “ALTRUISM” (concern for others)
NOT “ALIENATION” (separation from others)
Of course, SIMPLE population growth DOES NOT lead to human improvement.
There are plenty of places with large populations that remain poor.
Any time human beings get the OPPORTUNITY to WORK together and BETTER their situation, the percentage of POOR people is likely to DROP significantly.
As POPULATION has GROWN, the PERCENTAGE of POOR has gone DOWN
As human POPULATION numbers have GROWN, our average STANDARD of LIVING has GROWN as well
Statistic show as POPULATION has GROWN over time, the AVERAGE PERSON has BECOME BETTER OFF …
Measures show RISING per capita income – average life expectancy, average height, caloric consumption, sugar consumption, cotton consumption, even beer consumption.
Every single one of these averages has been steadily INCREASING over time as the population has grown.
This is in DIRECT CONTRADICTION to overpopulation alarmists, who hold that as population increases poverty becomes more severe
They claim that this is simple common sense.
As COUNTER-INTUITIVE as it may seem, “SCIENCE” (empirical observation) actually shows the OPPOSITE
As population grows, productivity and innovation GROW, which means that more and more people have ACCESS to the GOODS and SERVICES that they DESIRE
Population CONTROL IS NOT the ANSWER to poverty
POPULATION CONTROL ACTIVELY HURTS the POOR
Population control programs don’t just miss the point on poverty … they DISTRICT from it.
Poverty can be ALLEVIATED by a number of different programs.
When the focus is on bringing down population, valuable time, energy, and resources are spent solving a “problem” that DOES NOT exist, rather than the REAL PROBLEMS at hand.
“Family planning” programs miss the point, especially in places like Africa — which is that the people need legitimate, concrete aid.
People need food, water, and shelter — NOT population CONTROL
OVERPOPULATION?
Paul Ehrlich declared that FAMINES would devastate humanity in the 1970s
His 1968 work The Population Bomb, Ehrlich stated:
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo FAMINES – HUNDREDS of MILLIONS of people will STARVE to DEATH in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”
The United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) was founded in 1969, the year after Ehrlich published The Population Bomb.
They have been involved in programs with governments around the world who deny their women the right to choose the NUMBER and SPACING of their children.
Their complicit work with the infamous “ONE-CHILD POLICY” MANDATED by the GOVERNMENT of the People’s Republic of China, uncovered by an investigation of the U.S. State Department in 2001, led the United States to pull its funding.
COULD everyone could FIT in TEXAS ? …
According to the U.N. Population Database, the world’s population in 2010 will be 6,908,688,000. The landmass of Texas is 268,820 sq mi (7,494,271,488,000 sq ft).
Divide 7,494,271,488,000 sq ft by 6,908,688,000 people, and you get 1084.76 sq ft/person.
That’s approximately a 33′ x 33′ plot of land for every person on the planet, enough space for a town house.
Given an average four person family, every family would have a 66′ x 66′ plot of land, which would comfortably provide a single family home and yard – and all of them fit on a landmass the size of Texas.
Such an arrangement would leave the entire rest of the world vacant.
There’s PLENTY of SPACE for humanity
U.N. Population Database provides Low, Medium, and High Variants – the Low Variant is the one that keeps coming TRUE
The world’s population will PEAK in 30 YEARS
According to the U.N. Population Database, using the historically accurate low variant projection, the Earth’s population will ONLY ADD ANOTHER BILLION people or so over the next thirty years, peaking around 8.02 billion people in the year 2040, and THEN it will begin to DECLINE
Population is still technically growing, but according to the United Nation Population Division’s numbers, that growth is SLOWING dramatically.
The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) is the most reliable source of population statistics in the world.
According to the UNPD, population growth will continue to SLOW DOWN over the NEXT FEW DECADES.
If current trends persist, our growth will halt right around 8 BILLION by 2045.
After that, numbers will start to fall off, slowly at first, and then faster.
You might find this whole idea counterintuitive.
At first glance, it really does seem like population is skyrocketing. That’s because we’re still adding a billion people every few decades . . . and a billion people is a lot of people.
BUT the way we can tell that population is NOT BALLOONING OUT of CONTROL is precisely the fact that we’re only adding a billion people each time. And soon, we won’t even be adding that many.
Are the UN’s predictions are reliable?
It depends on which variant you use.
The UN’s predictions have been compared with real life – and in every case the “low variant” has been the most accurate.
Even if population growth is slowing down, a BILLION people every 15 years is still a LOT of people.
Is this STILL a PROBLEM?
POTENTIALLY YES … POTENTIALLY NO …
It is a LOT of people. Greater numbers bring their own challenges and issues.
BUT there IS NOT ANY CONVINCING EVIDENCE to show that the size of our POPULATION is the CAUSE of the world’s most pressing issues, like war, famine, disease, and poverty.
Since we have more people, our wars are bigger. Our famines may affect more people, and more people will have diseases and be poor.
But population growth DID NOT CREATE these problems – they have have EXISTED SINCE SINCE PEOPLE HAVE EXISTED.
We CAN NOT BLAME POPULATION for PROBLEMS that have been around FOREVER
The only difference is, since there are more of us now, these problems affect more people.
WHY has the global total FERTILITY rate DROPPED so much?
Scientists are still debating exactly why, but there’s no doubt that it is happening.
All over the world, BIRTHRATES have been DROPPING quickly, and for nearly 50 years now.
Many demographers think that it is because more and more people are urbanizing (moving into large cities).
When families live out in the country on farms, it makes more economic sense to raise larger families, so that they have people to help them and care for them in their old age.
It’s also true that cities tend to have better healthcare facilities, which reduce infant mortality.
This in turn means that parents end up having fewer children, since more of their existing children are surviving to adulthood.
Demographic experts observe as more and more of the human race find itself living under urban conditions in which children NO LONGER provide any economic benefit to their parents, but are rather costly impediments to material success,
people who are well adapted to this new environment will tend not to reproduce themselves. And many others who are not so successful will imitate them.”
A World in 2050 report presents economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP.
Reports project the WORLD economy to GROW at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50,
The WORLD ECONOMY DOUBLING in SIZE by 2037 and nearly TRIPLING by 2050
But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.
The GLOBAL ECONOMIC POWER SHIFT away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will CONTINUE over the next 35 years.
China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms. In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown.
India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms (third in MER terms), although this requires a sustained programme of structural reforms
We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050.